The Freakout Continues...

This might be interesting. I don't know how to read these beads, though, so it might turn into a big, fat nothing burger, too. We'll see.

On Wednesday, the White House will present its budget, one widely presumed to cut Social Security and Medicare benefits "going forward" and to do who knows what all damage to remaining social programs -- which have already been severely impacted by state and local budget cuts since the advent of the Permanent Recession, and have not in any way kept pace with the social needs of the American People as they are forced further and further into poverty and destitution.

Many people have pointed out that even Granny Starver Paul Ryan's budget doesn't (directly) harm the old, the halt, the blind and the lame. Obama's does. Or at least it's reported to in advance of its anxiously awaited release.

"Nixon goes to China" and all that.

There's not a lot that We the People can do about these machinations of the High and the Mighty. We can do almost nothing about them through elections. The political/electoral process in this country -- a process which was never amenable to the public interest or the public good -- has reached what looks like a terminal phase. It has become fundamentally useless as a means for accomplishing public interest ends. Only special interests can be accommodated. There are plenty of signs there is no chance for recovery from this condition. Both the major political parties are beholden to the richest players at the table, both do their bidding; neither is more than marginally conscious of the People and the public interest.

When the People become restless, the state cracks down with ever greater cruelty and violence. We live in what is effectively a police state set up and operated on behalf of a relative handful of vastly wealthy individuals and institutions.

The so-called "progressive" position under the current circumstances is to preserve what can be preserved of what remains of the New Deal social programs and to advance "cultural values" issues, such as same-sex marriage and so on.

In other words, preserve the status quo on vital issues -- to the extent that's possible -- and make incremental advances on the cultural margins, apparently so that generations to come will be culturally capable of and conditioned to doing the right thing on those vital matters.

In my view, there's nothing truly progressive about these positions at all. There's nothing progressive because there is nothing new in holding on to the tattered remnants of a more and more irrelevant social program status quo, nor is there anything new in extending rights to smaller and smaller segments of previously marginalized population segments. They may be desirable on their own account, but they are not "progress." One is quite self-consciously standing still.

So we now have a media frenzy and internet freakout over the White House's proposed "reforms" -- ie: cuts -- to Social Security and Medicare and doG-knows what other abominations the new federal budget contains.

But is it a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing?

Wouldn't surprise me.

Well...

It isn't over till it's over, but clearly the Fat Lady is tuning up.

The Debt Limit/Deficit issue is near some kind of Grand Bargain resolution, no matter the posturing of the players to suggest otherwise.

And the Simpson-Bowles report will be the framework for the resolution.

A New Commission will be formed to detail the alterations to the Entitlements that Simpson-Bowles left to be filled in later, but we can be sure that most of the rest of their report will be adopted pretty much as is.

This will mean, for example, that the tax base will be "broadened," by limiting deductions and tax "expenditures" (can anybody say "EITC?") and making "everyone" eligible to pay income taxes instead of just the 47% who do so now. Simultaneously, tax rates on the rich will go down, significantly. The poor, who never had to pay income taxes -- and were never meant to -- will now be "eligible" to put their skin in the game, lucky duckies, so as to make up for the tax losses at the top. Genius.

Entitlements (odd that that word has come to have a pejorative connotation among so many these days; it was never a curse word before) will be "adjusted" so as to reflect the "New Normal Times" we're living in. Back when the Soviet Union collapsed, pensioners took it in the shorts, and many of the survivors are still in dire straits. What we're being prepared for here doesn't look like it will be quite that bad, but it won't be good.

Social Security increases will be slowed, and the retirement age will be raised, but probably not substantially or quickly. It took thirty years to get it from 65 to 67, and it quite possibly will take 30 years to get it up to 70. Semi-Privatizing the program for younger workers is still a possibility, but probably not as much of one as was once the case; the Government needs SS funds for current operations, wars, and benefits for the rich, and at this point, it is hard to see a way for the Government to sacrifice any revenue source, but you never know.

It will become more and more difficult for oldsters to get by on their meager pensions, though. This will cause some distress -- but not nearly enough to do anything about it.

Medicare/Medicaid is going to be where the really nasty entitlement cuts are made, we can be almost certain of it.

Of course Medicaid has already been cut to the bone in state after bankrupt state. From a recipient's point of view, further cuts are almost inconceivable. But they're coming just the same. If you think Granny is being warehoused now, you ain't seen nothing yet. As for access to health care for the poor: Ha. In your dreams.

What will be happening with Medicaid recipients will be a preview of what is going to happen with just about everyone under the ACA, including Medicare recipients.

The signs are that the Ryan Plan will -- with some adjustments -- be implemented for seniors. It will be essentially the same as the ACA for everyone else. Apart from the confusion of the transition, there won't necessarily be any startling changes immediately, but ultimately, it will mean that everyone is paying more for less and less access to health care. That's the key to saving money in Medicaid -- make it difficult or impossible to access the health care system -- and that's what's going to happen with the rest of the health care industry. It will still be there; it may not necessarily even cost you any more than you already pay. You just won't have such "easy" access to care. Genius!

All this and much more is part of the neo-liberal Grand Bargain Obama is intent on. Whether or not he has a second term in the White House could not matter less to him, so all the fancy threats never to vote for him -- or any Democrat -- again!!!!® are pretty meaningless. So? Something about nose and spite comes to mind.

This is what it looks like from here.

Still developing, of course.

And from a political -- not a policy -- standpoint, Obama has played it masterfully.