Tracking

Covid cases in New Mexico may have begun their exponential rise. The confirmed number of cases stands at 191 as of yesterday, a rise of 55 over the day before, quite a jump after a week or more of no more than a couple of dozen new cases daily. So far, about 10,000 people with symptoms have been tested.

The first death connected to Covid in New Mexico happened on March 22. However, it was not identified as a Covid death until March 24, and it was reported on March 25. The 70 year old man with underlying conditions took sick and was transported to the hospital on March 22. He died in the hospital later that day. As I understand it, a test was not administered until after he died. But I could be wrong about that -- he may have been tested before he died but results were not received until afterwards.

This suggests to me that there are asymptomatic cases or mildly symptomatic cases that quite suddenly become life threatening and they are devilishly hard to identify -- until it's too late.

But it also suggests that comparatively speaking they are very few in the overall universe of symptomatic New Mexicans, let alone in the population as a whole.

Nevertheless, as identified cases start an exponential rise, it's pretty clear that the virus has been circulating for some time, weeks at least, and that there are likely to be many asymtomatic or mildly symptomatic individuals spreading it even though initially their numbers might be very low.

The first identified cases in NM were among people who had recently returned from travel to Egypt, Italy and New York. These people were isolated, their contacts were traced and isolated, and initially it seemed the virus was contained. But then, community transmission started turning up -- people who had not traveled to or through hot spots and who had to their knowledge not been in contact with anyone who had or was suspected to have Covid-19. At least some of these community spread cases appeared to have connection to the highways in that they appeared near the three interstates that criss-cross New Mexico. Clusters of cases then appeared in the Permian Basin oil fields which are closely connected with the Texas oil fields. Destinations for well off escapees from various hot spots -- destinations like Taos and Santa Fe -- started showing clusters.

Albuquerque is a special case, as it's the only large city in New Mexico. Although there are more cases there than anywhere else in the state, they are still relatively few given the population and the cross-roads nature of the city. People travel to and from and through Albuquerque from everywhere, by air, rail, truck and automobile, and some are no doubt bringing the virus with them largely unbeknownst.

Until yesterday, there were no controls on travel except for the "shelter in place" rules that were implemented as soon as the first community spread case was identified. Those rules were gradually tightened until the schools were closed and eventually all non-essential businesses were ordered shut down, gatherings of more than five were prohibited, and people were told to stay home except for essential trips (groceries, pharmacy and such).

As of yesterday, people arriving by air were ordered to self-isolate for two weeks, and those who came in contact with them were also ordered to self-isolate. There are still no restrictions on highway travelers, however, and it seems to me the virus will continue to spread via the highways as more and more people flee the hot spots. The flight of the wealthy to their resorts, summer homes, and bunkers is one of the primary means of spreading this virus. And they are still fleeing New York and Los Angeles and other hot spots. Some are coming to New Mexico, to their ranches spread around the state, to their pied a terres and estates in Santa Fe and Taos, and some are no doubt bringing it with them.

If New Mexico is on an exponential track for the virus we'll see quick doubling of cases every few days, or maybe not. We'll see.

So far, there are no confirmed cases in my county. The virus may be spreading anyway, and at least for the time being, there's no way for us to avoid going into Albuquerque now and then for meds and such that have to be picked up.

Random Speculation

Now that the Outbreak is shutting down New York City, hub of the Universe, and is actively spreading through the Hallowed Halls of Congress and even the White House staff, you would think it would concentrate the minds of Our Rulers. Oddly it doesn't seem to. Instead, they dither the way they always do, and they come up with one Rube Goldberg contraption after another to pretend to do something but actually do nothing but make a ball bounce around in a maze. Entertainment, in other words.

The idea that there has been no preparation for an Outbreak of this potential scale and lethality is silly. Of course there has been, and we're seeing the plans --- such as they are --- implemented day by day. That's where the lockdowns and shelter in place orders come from. The cessation of most business comes from long made plans. The demands of the overclass for MORE MONEY!!!! are all planned in. The lack of medical equipment and supplies has been known for years, and how much time it would take to "ramp up" production is also well understood.

What's happening is no mystery to most of those in charge, and they expect it to get much worse until and unless there is a concerted and sustained effort to reverse the situation. Which may -- or may not -- come in a year. Or more.

In the meantime, tough luck suckers.

The die off so far is interestingly not as high as expected. So far, we're nowhere near the 1% thought likely, let alone the 4% considered probable given the lethality of the virus elsewhere. It's early yet, but not that early, so there must be something mitigating the overall death rate in the US, whether it is under reporting or different treatment or what. The progression of infection seems completely exponential, but not -- so far -- the death rate.

Are we dealing with a mutated virus, one somewhat different than the one ravaging Europe? Maybe.

Has anyone tracked down the US Patient Zero and traced travel and contacts? How many Patients Zero were there? The Outbreak was first noticed in the Seattle area and it was grotesquely lethal as it spread through skilled nursing facilities, carried it seems by a single staff member who worked through a number of them. But though it was first noticed there, was that the original US infection site? Maybe not.

I can look at the way the virus has spread in New Mexico and notice that the first cases were among travelers -- some to Egypt, some to Washington state and New York, and that at least some future cases, not related to the first ones, seem to have been transmitted through Interstate Highway routes.

Then there are some that have mysterious origins. They just seemed to pop up out of nowhere. Could there be a simultaneous domestic origin? Could the virus be something that exists commonly in the background and spontaneously mutates into a more or less lethal version of the Outbreak virus? I don't know. But the theory that all cases have been the result of spread from Wuhan may have some holes. It may take years to find out.

Then there's the question of treatments. Plaquenil, which I take, has apparently disappeared from the market scarfed up like toilet paper and being hoarded. It supposedly can be an effective treatment, and maybe it is, but it has side effects that can be worse than the disease.  I've had to cut back my dosage because I can't get any more, perhaps for the duration, and if I run out, oh well!

There are other treatments being speculated on and tried, and maybe, just maybe, something will be found that's widely effective before the virus mutates again into something else.

Our ruling class is affected perhaps more so at this point than the Rabble, as the virus has spread widely through the Upper Class resorts and hideyholes. So far, I haven't found any reports of death among them, but who knows? Would they tell us?

The Hallowed Halls of Congress are starting to look pretty empty. First they bar tourists and the general public, and then Members started testing positive. Community transmission is going on as they grind the sausage of some kind of bill to give much money to the High and the Mighty, and by the time they get to a compromise, there might not be a quorum. Who would have thought?

Meanwhile the Daily White House Follies and Freak Show continues, the lockdowns spread across the nation, and people continue to get sick.

Failure is more  than possible. Our rulers are following a pattern we've seen over and over again. The question is whether they will get away with it this time.

Maybe not.

No Cable, Yay!

I probably pay more attention to the news than I should, but we don't have cable teevee, so we aren't inundated by 24/7 screaming and partisan political spin on everything. The news we see on the teevee is almost entirely local broadcast (well, regional, as there is no truly "local" news outlet around here), national PBS, and international DW. We also listen to NPR while driving, but neither of us drive much any more, and not solely because of the Outbreak.

Of course, I check news, opinion and updates on the intertubes constantly, too often, really. But I get a more or less realtime picture of the development of the Outbreak, and it's ugly, yet strangely not as bad as we're led to expect or believe. Number of cases grows startlingly fast; number of deaths and seriously ill, not so much; and despite all the running around screaming about it, hospitals, so far, are not reported to be overwhelmed. Except in some places. Some of the time. "Next week,"  they tell us, will be the tsunami. May be.

I've watched parts of the daily White House Freak Shows and find them practically useless for any purpose. Even as propaganda for the regime, they fall short. The regime acts primarily to protect itself, as regimes are wont to do, but the blather from the podium is so self-contradictory or obfuscatory that it's hard to imagine anyone with a functioning brain believes it. Even Anthony Fauci is caught up in the whirlwind of lies. Not that I ever had that much faith in him. During the AIDS crisis, he was not as up front, honest, medically useful or politically astute as his later narrative would have it, and a lot of people were sacrificed to his and others' dithering. But water under the bridge.

We're here now, and given the company he keeps, he's the sane one. Jeebus.

In this case, it seems that -- like the AIDS crisis and many other crises since then -- the PTB are quite prepared, even in some cases eager, to let a certain proportion of the population perish in the interests of some notions of Greater Good. Perhaps it's always that way, I don't know. I've seen estimates of a 20% die-off in the Western world, and some of our rulers seem to see it as just as well to be done with the excess useless eaters once and for all. In their view, 20% isn't nearly enough. But if predictions are realized, the Outbreak will return again and again, and so... the eventual cull will be much higher.

It may be apocalyptic for the rabble but not at all -- so far -- for the High and the Mighty. Well, perhaps there are some exceptions.

Apparently the Colorado Outbreak is not concentrated among the Christianist enclaves around Colorado Springs as I thought. Nope, according to the NYT, the Colorado Outbreak was focused within the ski resorts, the international destinations, where members of the upper classes have long had their winter revels. For a time, at any rate, there were more cases of COVID-19 in Eagle County than in Denver. And these people travel the world. OK then.

It tends to focus the mind, doesn't it.

Of course there were the cases at Mar-a-Lago, in Congress, at the White House, among the prime ministerial families, and even European royals (oh my!). Apparently, the virus doesn't care who you are or what your position is in the scheme of things.

And so I wonder about the specifics of the Outbreak in New York, where the confirmed cases are so high, they're not even testing the public any more, only health care workers and hospital patients who have significant symptoms. They're assuming anyone else with appropriate symptoms have it. But who are they? What is the infection rate among Our Betters, and what is the outcome? Too soon to know, but we may be surprised.

The Outbreak is spreading in New Mexico. Cases went from 43 to 57 over night an then up to 65 this afternoon with one new county added to the list, and there are now at least 26 cases on the Navajo Nation which straddles New Mexico and Arizona with sections in Utah . It's not quite as fast a rise as we've seen elsewhere, but it's concerning nonetheless. So far no deaths, but it is obvious that there is growing stress in the medical community -- near-panic -- and the regional media, while not going to happy-talk all the time is working to keep people's spirits up rather than focusing on what could go wrong.

The fact that transportation routes have barely been affected is worrying. The virus is introduced via transport from infected areas via the highways and airports primarily. I don't advocate closing them down, but the absence of any controls means that the virus will spread throughout the country, and there is nothing to stop it -- or to even track the spread. This seems to be the current policy. Just let it spread, and clean up afterwards. 

Or not. Our rulers are all about protecting themselves from the filth of the masses, and looky-looky, they're getting contaminated and/or falling one after another. They try to escape to the Hamptons or their bunkers in Idaho and they carry the virus with them. They think they're immune in the Capitol or White House and one by one they test positive, fall ill or what have you. Rand Paul is the latest I saw any news about.

As for the collapsing economy, that may ultimately be more deadly than the virus. I've wondered whether there is already a rise in suicide. As things get worse and supplies dwindle, it'll be tough to get through the period ahead for many, many millions. The potential fallout is not even being acknowledged in public.

This is a perfect opportunity for Disaster Capitalism to work its magic. The problem is that even those who would play that game are vulnerable to the virus. And so, we hunker down and hope for the best.

At least I don't have to see the hysterics on cable teevee!

Yay.

On the Upward Curve

Just looked at the numbers. Hm. I shouldn't have done that. We're on pace to meet some of the ugliest projections of death and disease from COVID-19. New York appears to be the present epicenter, but California's state-wide shut down is perhaps more worrying as it includes the possibility that upwards of 25 million residents will be infected without it and an unknown number with it. With a 1% death rate, that means potentially 250,000 dead. Or some fraction thereof. In California alone. If that situation is replicated in other states and localities, we're looking at many millions of dead, perhaps ultimately close to the 11 million predicted at one time.

China has apparently controlled the Outbreak domestically through enacting some tough quarantine measures in Wuhan and locating and isolating carriers and patients outside the region. They may not have done it as early as they should have, but they did it and it seems to have worked. At least for now.

Something necessary, however, is not happening in Italy and much of the rest of Europe, or in most of the English speaking countries where the virus is running rampant despite spotty or even nation-wide shut downs, gathering prohibitions and stay at home orders.

Part of the problem of course is the near absence of tests and testing for the virus in so many places. Where tests can be done on a relatively large scale -- nowhere near the scale of testing in China, Korea, Japan or practically anywhere in Asia -- the number of infected individuals is high and growing exponentially. Italy got overwhelmed, and it looks like New York and California could be next, while Washington is struggling mightily to keep up with constantly increasing numbers of victims. It's a situation compounded by a reluctance or inability to test and, shall we say, a porous Shelter In Place policy. Projections are grim, very grim. And there's no way out.

As I understand it, in Wuhan and Hubei Province, the lockdown was real. Residents were confined to their homes or to hospitals, and violations were spotted and punished promptly. Testing was widespread and continuous. Travel within the city and province was confined to that necessary to transport food and supplies, which were delivered to residents; they did not go out shopping or for any other reason without permission and strict supervision.

Nothing as strict and enforceable is underway in the US or pretty much anywhere else in the West. Thus we're seeing continuing spread -- in some places almost completely uncontrolled.

Much of the failure to control the virus in the West is, I believe, due to the imposition of neoLibCon ideology onto everything. Ultimately, it's a nihilist death cult that has been waiting, if you will, for just such an apocalyptic situation for its ultimate triumph.

Our rulers have been preparing for years, decades, at least a generation. They have their bunkers stocked, their escape routes plotted, and their financial reserves are fat and in some cases still growing. They have no reason, it seems, to fear the virus. It won't affect them, or if it does, their concierge medicos will take care of it in short order. After all, even for ordinary rabble, 80% or more recover without intervention of any kind. So they say. There are apparently a number of treatment options for the well connected who get sick. But few will, as most of the High and Mighty never come into contact with the Lower Orders.

A 20% die off of the Rabble doesn't bother Our Rulers a bit, especially if it is focused on the old, the ill, the useless eaters, the rebellious, and so forth. If anything, I'm sure some would be happier if the cull rate were higher.

I've watched the goon show in Washington that hasn't really addressed the situation and appears too incompetent to do so, and I'm becoming more convinced every day that their "incompetence" is a charade. It's quite deliberate and very cynical. They have no intention to do what is necessary to prevent a major die-off. They never had any intention to interfere more than minimally.

What we've been witnessing in Italy is an example of what they want to see here. The public healthcare system completely overwhelmed, triage that saves the young and otherwise healthy and consigns the old, the ill, and the not-well-connected to their fate -- which for many is an unpleasant death.  There's nothing to do about it because there isn't "enough" of anything, anywhere, to control the Outbreak. Tough luck, suckers. Too bad, so sad.

Those stocks of toilet paper you've been hoarding? May as well give them to the dogs to play with:

And so...

So far, the Rabble has mostly submitted with little resistance. How long that will last, I don't know. If, as I suspect, the situation gets desperate enough in certain locations in the US, there will be rebellion. But it is unlikely to be universal, and it may be put down rather easily -- or it may be co-opted, too.

Uncontrolled chaos is unsustainable, but we haven't reached that point yet. There's no consistent leadership from DC, and there won't be. Localities are essentially on their own, and any help they receive from On High depends on their submission. Unquestioning. And even then, it looks like that won't be enough.

We ain't seen nothin' yet.

Stay alert, stay well, don't fear the Reaper.

Closing Down (in an abundance of caution...)

Our governor, Michelle Lujan Grisham, had announcements to make yesterday. I've never been fond of her elementary school principal presentation, but I guess she thinks it's effective. The point was to drive home the importance of shutting down much of the state's economic and transportation activity in order to contain the spread of the Outbreak. There was an apparent case of community transmission yesterday. That triggered a raft of new restrictions.

Thus, while not being confined to their homes -- unless they have the virus -- New Mexicans are urged not to travel (especially not out of state), not to gather in groups of 10 or more, and not to work outside the home unless necessary. Many businesses and activities were ordered closed including most that would have more than 10 people on premises at a time. Restaurants can no longer serve patrons inside, they can only provide take out and delivery. Bars must close. Casinos must close. Social distancing is encouraged. Wash, wash, wash. Retailers are directed to put limits on purchases of paper products, soap, sanitizing supplies, and so forth (3 per at one time), and they are encouraged to provide special shopping hours for the old, the halt and the lame.

Schools have been closed for some time. Hand sanitizer has not been available for weeks, so distilleries are making it themselves -- since they have stocks of alcohol, after all, and apparently can get quantities of aloe vera gel -- and distributing it for free to first responders and police. Doctors' offices and hospitals are limiting contact with routine patients in order to prepare for possible corona virus patients. Dentists are cancelling routine appointments. I got a call from my pulmonologist yesterday asking me to postpone my appointment -- if I was feeling OK -- until this situation calmed down, as she would likely not be able to provide more than observational service. The pulmonary function test equipment was being reserved for those in immediate distress.

Yes, I am feeling OK, so I agreed to postpone, and then went ahead and postponed oncologist and rheumatologist appointments until September, when I hope things settle down somewhat, but who knows. I have not yet scheduled semi-annual rituxan infusions that would ordinarily be done in June and December. June will probably be impossible, but we'll see when the time comes.

Ms. Ché went to visit with friends in Albuquerque yesterday and they had a video call with their friend in Delaware. She's self-isolating for two weeks because she believes she's been exposed, though she has no symptoms, then she is thinking of heading to North Carolina to stay with a friend there. Delaware doesn't have a lot of cases, but our friend has been exposed to half of them, and there are many more in New Jersey and Maryland. So far, North Carolina has some dozens of cases, but the number isn't growing fast. Of course knowing the number requires testing, and in many places it is still not available or being done.

A neighbor came over to check on us yesterday while Ms Ché was gone. We keep an eye on one another. It's what you do. We're all in the elders with chronic conditions demographic. One of our neighbors is a long distance trucker who's usually gone five days a week or more. Younger than us, but probably at more risk, we give him a call now and then just to be sure he's ok. Ms Ché's relations in California and Nevada are hunkering down, too, either because of official policy or out of an abundance of caution.

And so it goes.

Stay home to the extent you can, wash and wash, check on neighbors and relations, and be safe.

I've referred to what's going on as a paradigm shift as consequential as those following 9/11 and the financial crash of 2008. I have no idea how we'll come out on the other side, but the signs don't bode well. And yet, there's always the potential for something better in the end, no?

Anticipating the Cull

Now that the US death toll from the Outbreak has passed 100 and all 50 states have reported infection (announced totals close to 6000, but actual totals may be 10-20 times higher) it's time to consider both the immediate future and the mid-term as well as a post COVID-19 future.

As I researched my ancestors, I was struck by how many of them and their relations died between 1918 and 1920. Some were old but most weren't. Hm. Spanish flu victims, probably. As was the case with many families, this loss wasn't discussed much while I was growing up. It must have had an effect, but nobody talked about it, and if I asked questions about it, I don't remember any answers if there were any.

I suspect it will be like that with regard to the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. There was a huge cull of Americans and many, many others around the world on top of the devastation of WWI due to the Spanish Flu, but it seemed to fade from memory fairly quickly. There is every sign there will be a significant cull due to the current pandemic -- how big is yet unknown. The incomplete statistics suggest an overall death rate of about 3%, but estimates of the real death rate vary between 1% or less to 5% or 6%. This is much higher than seasonal flu, and could mean as many as 2-3 million deaths in the US alone before the epidemic burns out (assuming it does). Deaths will be concentrated among the sicker of the old.

"Boomer Doomer" they call it.

This is only partially a joke, and the fact is, the loss of so many oldsters is not an unpleasant thought to some of the younger survivors. Indeed, surviving members of the ruling class might well appreciate the passing of a large percentage of the Boomer generation.

A major cull of humanity has long been seen by nihilists as necessary for the good of themselves or the earth, after all, and if the Outbreak can accomplish it, so much the better. If it's primarily a cull of the olds, how much more beneficial for the younger survivors would that be?

The immediate future is one of isolated anxiety for many millions of Americans. Out here in the wilderness, we've been under semi-lockdown, but most services are still operational, and while Ms. Ché and I stay in most of the time, we aren't limited to home confinement by any means. We go out for groceries, cat food, and supplies in our little town or in the next one, not that there's much on the shelves. We go into town for medical appointments or to socialize with friends. We could go to local and in town restaurants (most are still open) if we wanted. UPDATE: This afternoon, the governor ordered the closure of all bars, restaurants, casinos and so forth due to the enumeration of the first case without an identified source. Community transmission is assumed to have begun.

But we're very conscious of the risks, and we try not to push our luck. Ms. Ché and I are prime targets, not just Boomers, but Boomers with chronic underlying conditions.

In a telephone town hall with our congressmember yesterday, we learned that there is no community spread in New Mexico -- yet. The 23 28 currently identified cases are all in isolation and they are all due to travel-exposure and/or exposure within the household of someone infected. See update above. So far, no one has died, though I seem to recall at least one is hospitalized in critical condition.

Just north in Colorado, it seems the virus is raging, so I'm not at all sanguine about the likelihood of New Mexico escaping eventual widespread infection. It's not just Colorado. Texas and Arizona have cases and because of political ideology I strongly suspect they are underreporting cases and refusing to implement various mitigations. Sadly, we've seen this pattern throughout Trump-country, following the lead of the rightist media and Trump himself until recently. Ah but because there has still been very little testing, no one has any idea what the real infection rate is.

The immediate future is likely to include a good deal more "lockdown" procedures, but how strict it will become is hard to say. In fact, it seems as if Our Rulers, like Boris Johnson in Britain, are toying with the "herd immunity" fantasy by letting the virus infect a substantial percentage of the population and let nature take its course, along with triaging the ill and letting the young and strong survive.  The old and frail? Not so much.

Boris was apparently shamed off that approach as it would be overwhelming to the health care system, and it would mean literally millions dead in Britain alone. Ultimately there may be no choice, as the spread of the disease appears to be out of control in several locations, and so far there's been no real effort to end travel between these locations and the rest of the country.

China's experience, however, indicates that closing off travel between hot locations and elsewhere in the country seems to work, though it takes a while. The Chinese brought their infection rate and death rate down substantially by strictly limiting travel within China, indeed within cities and even apartment blocks. They also put up numerous temporary hospitals to treat those who became infected. It wasn't perfect, it still isn't. But it's been effective.

The Korean experience has been different, but it has also worked to lower the infection rate and death rate.

So far, though, the English-speaking countries and Western Europe have largely been failing, no matter what they try. There are mitigations, but they seem to be too little, too late. How that will translate into infection and death rates remains to be seen. But given the sense of calamity out there, we can expect rates to increase in every area, and substantially increase in some areas. For example, the Seattle area, the San Francisco Bay Area, New York City, and a few other areas are having a very hard time right now and the expectation is they will get much worse before they get better. Many other places may not see a high infection/death rate, or even much of an effect at all. People may get sick but most or all will recover.

There will be a cull, no doubt, and most of the dead will be the old and unwell. How many? Who knows? And what will the world be like afterwards? That's the question.

Things Change

Spent part of today on the phone with a friend in Delaware. There are four confirmed cases of the virus at the University of Delaware where she is getting her MA, and the campus is essentially closed for the duration. She was thinking of coming home to New Mexico, but it's difficult. She'd have to drive. She doesn't want to fly. And she's afraid if she did drive, she'd run into travel restrictions and barriers on the highways because things are changing so fast. She saw people panicking at the grocery store this morning, hoarders piling up all the meat  they could cram into their carts, pushing, yelling, scaring the old people, just crazy. This is what we're descending to?

So after some long talk, she thought she'd take a break and go to the beach, maybe go stay with a friend in North Carolina. Or just tough it out in Wilmington. She finally said she was afraid to come to New Mexico because she might be a carrier and she didn't want to bring any harm back home.

Jeeze that sucks.

We told her that things are still relatively calm here, but there are changes. Gatherings of 100 or more are prohibited. All K-12 schools are closed. "Social distancing" is the rule. Reduce travel. Drive thru testing facilities are open in Gallup and Albuquerque and will expand statewide. Coronavirus tests are still in short supply, but more are "coming." You don't need a doctor's referral to use the drive thrus. But if you don't have symptoms, they'll turn you away. 24 to 36 hours for results.

There are officially ten positive patients in New Mexico, all of whom are either self-isolating or in the hospital. But it is believed there are probably many more people with COVID-19 in the state.

Services are being arranged to provide food and supplies to those who aren't able to get their own. Schools in Albuquerque are closed, but many will provide take away breakfast and lunch for students at no charge, and some even provide three meals a day and will provide adult meals for $4.00.

Stores continue to be picked pretty clean. Most are limiting purchases of supplies like toilet paper and bottled water. There are no wet wipes, hand sanitizer and in some places no hand soap to be had.

Ms. Ché and I are OK and not out and about much in any case. We have pretty good neighbors, but they're not well off, and we'll be doing the best we can to look after one another. It's still hard to believe, though. We're living in interesting times.

And So It Begins

The first three coronaviris patients in New Mexico were reported yesterday, and the governor declared a state of health emergency. The panic appeared to begin all but immediately, though it was muted. How things proceed from here we'll see. I loaded up on some supplies at the grocery store, but we can't really anticipate what will happen can we? There seemed to be a good-sized supply of paper products on the shelves, though, so there's that. The store was packed with old folks. Some of the staff was showing real stress. The cases are not close by, they are all self-isolating, but transmission seems to be almost random at this point.

More and more of Ms Ché's planned events are either canceled or postponed. The campus where she's completing her MFA is effectively shut down for the rest of the school year. No more in person classes, possible canceling of graduation ceremonies, no tours or visits from outside. Students living on campus can stay, but those who left for Spring Break are encouraged not to return except to pick up their things.

Gathering of Nations has been postponed. It's one of the biggest Native American events in the country. The Cherokee group in Albuquerque will not have its scheduled meeting this weekend. Friends coming from various parts of the country have been advised to hold off.

There are a lot of other actions being taken, some I'm unaware of or only vaguely aware of. Things are changing fast, yet some things are not. The fear is there but for now is low-key.

And then there's the regime in DC and its constant fraud and bungling. Trump made a major gaffe in his speech to the nation last night, stating that neither shipments nor passengers from Europe would be allowed into the USA, only to have to tweet -- or someone twitted on his behalf -- that he didn't mean that shipments were banned, only passengers. OK. Sure, whatever. And I've seen that in any number of appearances lately, backed up by all these health professionals, he lies about everything, assuring falsely, and so on, and no one corrects him in real time, and all these experts first have to ensure they don't cross him before they sometimes tell something like the truth --carefully parsing their words so as not to enrage the man in the big chair. It's nightmarish.

There are said to be 2500 test kits in New Mexico, and we are instructed to call a triage hotline before doing anything else if we suspect we have symptoms of the virus. Then and possibly only then we will be brought a test or be referred to a clinical facility for testing. We are not to go to hospital ERs or in some cases even to our own doctors. Interesting.

The shortages of tests and protective gear for medicos is a big part of the restrictions. There simply isn't enough materiel to address the looming crisis. And it may get worse as the bungling continues. The oil price free fall will severely affect New Mexico's public funding ability too.

And it's happening all over the country in one way or another.

The paradigm shift is and will be significant.

Take care.

Life Changes

The progress of The Outbreak is continuing to change the way we behave and to control more and more of what we do and don't do, even way out here in the wilderness. There have been no cases of The Disease reported in New Mexico, but still.

Things have been disappearing from the stores -- we have a few -- for weeks. Hand sanitizer has long been hard to come by or unavailable. Stocks of toilet paper have been declining, but you can still get some. OTC pharmaceuticals are iffy, depending on what they are. Vitamins -- particularly B12 and D3 -- are spotty at best. Masks? Forget about it. Ordering online is not much better, as availability is limited and price gouging is not uncommon. No one is panicking that I've seen, but there seem to be fewer people out and about.

We live a few miles from the Interstate, and there are three truckstops and a number of motels for travelers in "town" up the road. That means, of course, that transmission is almost certain -- eventually. What happens then, we don't know.

There is an urgent care and a public health office in "town" so there is that. What they can or will do if there is an outbreak here is anyone's guess. So far, no announcements have been made, and concern is still modest. We may not be safe, but there is time to prepare.

I've been essentially housebound for several years due to my condition. That condition requires me to take a lot of immunosuppresant medication -- which keeps me relativeley pain free, but it means I'm at very high risk of succumbing to the disease given my age and compromised immune system.

Ms. Ché is also at high risk due to age and diabetes. She didn't go to a writers' convention in San Antonio because of the risk, and now she's learned that several other conventions and conferences she was planning to attend this month and next have been canceled. We're wondering if her graduation ceremonies will be canceled in May when she's supposed to be getting her MFA. She long ago made plans, bought tickets to a concert and arranged lodging in Las Vegas for June. That might be canceled too. She lost her pre-paid nonrefundable hotel charges in San Antonio (about $500) and she may lose much more if the Las Vegas trip doesn't materialize as she prepaid all of that almost a year ago.

I was planning on making one more trip to California to close down our storage there, but it may not happen this year at all. We'll see.

It's definitely an odd sensation, knowing something (may be) coming, knowing there's not a whole lot we can do about it, knowing the regime is concerned primarily with appearances, and knowing this could be an end game. But then, realistically, it's always an end game, isn't it.

Things could change in an instant -- or not.

Stay well out there.

The Outbreak

It's looking more and more like we might have a real problem just down the road with the global outbreak of COVID-19, the new coronavirus that's been spreading in the US with few or no barriers as the Trump regime botches the public health response in order to curry favor with or not to contradict El Caudillo.

It appears that what is being done is completely --and deliberately -- inadequate because Trump gets cross if anything happens or is reported that makes him look bad. So tests are slow-rolled, numbers of patients and spread of the virus are kept artificially low, officials who try to tell the truth are smeared and denounced -- or ignored. And Trump relentlessly campaigns for his show's renewal in the midst of the unfolding tragedy.

Everyone has to kow-tow to him, for if they displease him in any way, they're out. More and more incompetence is rewarded. As more and more people contract the disease and/or die from it, the regime insists that's what's really important is the stock market and the economy, and some wags point out it would be better if "everyone" got the disease at once so that it could be over with faster and the stock market would stabilize. Or something.

So far, there haven't been any cases reported here in New Mexico, but who knows, really? We faced a decision last week, however, when Ms. Ché was slated to go to San Antonio, TX to attend a writer's and publisher's conference. While she was getting prepped to go, it was announced that a woman who tested positive had been released from quarantine (there are two sites near San Antonio where cruise ship passengers were quarantined) and had gone shopping in town. Oh. Then it was realized that thousands of people were coming to this conference from all over the country and the world, and many of them could be carriers. What to do? There was lots of discussion on the tweeter machine, and for a time it was touch and go whether the convention would be canceled altogether. Dozens of presenters backed out, hundreds of attendees canceled. In the end, the organizers and the city said the conference would go ahead but that attendees should be aware of the (then slight) risk and practice protective behavior (no hugging, kissing, handshaking, wash and wash and wash, keep distance from one another and a greater distance from anyone sick, don't bother with masks -- unless you're sick), and so on.

Ms. Ché and her travel companion discussed it at length and ultimately decided not to go. Ms Ché herself is high risk as an elder diabetic, and even if they didn't get sick, they could potentially bring it back with them. It wasn't worth the risk. Not going meant the pre-paid hotel wouldn't be refunded, but oh well. Better to lose some money than a loved one.

Then we heard that SXSW in Austin was problematical as the big ticket attendees withdrew. Eventually, it was "ordered" canceled altogether as too great a risk. We'll see more of this, and Trump will rage and insult and things are bound to get worse because no one will know enough about what's going on to do anything much about it.

And so it goes. Welcome to the new normal.