On the Upward Curve

Just looked at the numbers. Hm. I shouldn't have done that. We're on pace to meet some of the ugliest projections of death and disease from COVID-19. New York appears to be the present epicenter, but California's state-wide shut down is perhaps more worrying as it includes the possibility that upwards of 25 million residents will be infected without it and an unknown number with it. With a 1% death rate, that means potentially 250,000 dead. Or some fraction thereof. In California alone. If that situation is replicated in other states and localities, we're looking at many millions of dead, perhaps ultimately close to the 11 million predicted at one time.

China has apparently controlled the Outbreak domestically through enacting some tough quarantine measures in Wuhan and locating and isolating carriers and patients outside the region. They may not have done it as early as they should have, but they did it and it seems to have worked. At least for now.

Something necessary, however, is not happening in Italy and much of the rest of Europe, or in most of the English speaking countries where the virus is running rampant despite spotty or even nation-wide shut downs, gathering prohibitions and stay at home orders.

Part of the problem of course is the near absence of tests and testing for the virus in so many places. Where tests can be done on a relatively large scale -- nowhere near the scale of testing in China, Korea, Japan or practically anywhere in Asia -- the number of infected individuals is high and growing exponentially. Italy got overwhelmed, and it looks like New York and California could be next, while Washington is struggling mightily to keep up with constantly increasing numbers of victims. It's a situation compounded by a reluctance or inability to test and, shall we say, a porous Shelter In Place policy. Projections are grim, very grim. And there's no way out.

As I understand it, in Wuhan and Hubei Province, the lockdown was real. Residents were confined to their homes or to hospitals, and violations were spotted and punished promptly. Testing was widespread and continuous. Travel within the city and province was confined to that necessary to transport food and supplies, which were delivered to residents; they did not go out shopping or for any other reason without permission and strict supervision.

Nothing as strict and enforceable is underway in the US or pretty much anywhere else in the West. Thus we're seeing continuing spread -- in some places almost completely uncontrolled.

Much of the failure to control the virus in the West is, I believe, due to the imposition of neoLibCon ideology onto everything. Ultimately, it's a nihilist death cult that has been waiting, if you will, for just such an apocalyptic situation for its ultimate triumph.

Our rulers have been preparing for years, decades, at least a generation. They have their bunkers stocked, their escape routes plotted, and their financial reserves are fat and in some cases still growing. They have no reason, it seems, to fear the virus. It won't affect them, or if it does, their concierge medicos will take care of it in short order. After all, even for ordinary rabble, 80% or more recover without intervention of any kind. So they say. There are apparently a number of treatment options for the well connected who get sick. But few will, as most of the High and Mighty never come into contact with the Lower Orders.

A 20% die off of the Rabble doesn't bother Our Rulers a bit, especially if it is focused on the old, the ill, the useless eaters, the rebellious, and so forth. If anything, I'm sure some would be happier if the cull rate were higher.

I've watched the goon show in Washington that hasn't really addressed the situation and appears too incompetent to do so, and I'm becoming more convinced every day that their "incompetence" is a charade. It's quite deliberate and very cynical. They have no intention to do what is necessary to prevent a major die-off. They never had any intention to interfere more than minimally.

What we've been witnessing in Italy is an example of what they want to see here. The public healthcare system completely overwhelmed, triage that saves the young and otherwise healthy and consigns the old, the ill, and the not-well-connected to their fate -- which for many is an unpleasant death.  There's nothing to do about it because there isn't "enough" of anything, anywhere, to control the Outbreak. Tough luck, suckers. Too bad, so sad.

Those stocks of toilet paper you've been hoarding? May as well give them to the dogs to play with:

And so...

So far, the Rabble has mostly submitted with little resistance. How long that will last, I don't know. If, as I suspect, the situation gets desperate enough in certain locations in the US, there will be rebellion. But it is unlikely to be universal, and it may be put down rather easily -- or it may be co-opted, too.

Uncontrolled chaos is unsustainable, but we haven't reached that point yet. There's no consistent leadership from DC, and there won't be. Localities are essentially on their own, and any help they receive from On High depends on their submission. Unquestioning. And even then, it looks like that won't be enough.

We ain't seen nothin' yet.

Stay alert, stay well, don't fear the Reaper.