Buzz!

Hive Mind? Or...? You decide.

Like many others, I've seen the Benazir Assassination as the critical event of this Astrological Year of Endings. We recognize instinctively that even though we don't know what happened exactly, and probably never will, what happened is huge and it is quite likely to be the precipitating incident for whatever happens in the New Year. We recognize, too, that what could happen in the New Year is appalling.

Like many others, I've been bouncing around between news and analysis sources the last few days, hoping to stumble on to something that can give us some hope. But no. There's nothing. It's yet another fine mess engineered -- at least in part -- by those geniuses who brought us so much catastrophe already.

I found that I seemed to be channelling Spencer Ackerman and Josh Marshall, even though I hadn't been to TPM more than once during the immediate period after the assassination. I highly recommend following their posts on the matter. Like the rest of us, they may be wrong, but they are deeper into the intricacies of the story than most of us would ever want to be.

Juan Cole has been an invaluable resource.

His colleague Barney Rubin is running rings around practically every other analyst out there. Earlier I linked to Rubin's WSJ article on the Musharraf Problem, but I would like to urge everyone to read Scott Horton's interview with Rubin for Harpers.

I'm as ignorant as anybody else about where this is all going to lead. But something tells me that the Busheviks have fucked up so bad in their reliance on Benazir, and their butt boy Musharraf is in so much domestic hot water, that nothing any of them try to do now will save the situation. Literally, it is up to the Pakistani military to keep the lid on (sort of) or... let 'er rip.

The only question remaining is how bad will the blowback be? And how far will it spread?

Oddly enough, here's who might come out the unquestioned winner:



Revenge for Afghanistan and the Fall of the Soviet Union?

¿Quién sabe?

Tectonic!

Watching the Conventional Wisdom on the Benazir Assassination shift and re-congeal these past few days has been interesting to say the least. First out of the gate were the Mighty Defenders of the Status Quo, those who insisted that Despite the Tragedy and Shock, nothing must change, Musharraf must be supported, life and elections must go on, The Woman Would Have Wanted It That Way. David Ignatius was perhaps the premier example, but they opined on all the shows, and littered the governmental spokesmouths top to bottom, Over There and Over Here.

There was no other Wisdom at all, Conventional or otherwise, at least at first. Even the Lefty Blogosphere repeated the Usual Nostrums.

Then slowly and reluctantly, other voices started to break through the usually impenetrable wall of Convention. They started Over There, where the predominant idea from the beginning was that Musharraf was responsible for Benazir's assassination, even if he or his minions were not directly involved. Since nobody really knew who the triggerman was or who he was aligned with, let alone why this deed was done, speculation on motives and who was behind it were just that. Speculation.

What was not speculation was the fact that Musharraf had set himself up as an Autocrat, had been ruling by decree, had subverted and undermined democratic processes and had dismissed an independent judiciary not of his liking. He rules Pakistan with a heavy hand, and he alone determines such matters as whether or not people like Benazir shall have freedom of movement and what sort or whether they shall have security protection when they do move about and speak.

Nobody knew who the killer or killers were, but Musharraf's responsibility for the assassination could not be avoided. And that was the message out of Pakistan during the initial hours and days of turmoil and chaos. No one who was anyone was listening to Those People, of course, they being Brown Rabble and all, but one of our Democratic candidates, Bill Richardson (he being Brown himself and thoroughly versed in South Asian diplomacy among other things) did listen and said, "Musharraf has to go."

The screaming from the Palace Chatterati was immediate, yet there was near unanimity from Pakistan: Musharraf was the Problem; American support for this Problem was destroying Pakistan. Benazir -- whatever you thought of her -- was dead because of this Problem. And Nuclear Armed Pakistan was going up in flames.

The American policy of supporting this rascal -- who allowed Ur-Nemesis Osama a safe haven in the "Ungoverned Tribal Areas" of Pakistan, whose military and intelligence services were long known to be infiltrated by Taliban and al Qaeda forces, and whose security forces (so called) were unable to prevent the assassination of one of the most popular politicians on the Subcontinent (let alone unable to prevent the deaths of hundreds of Pakistanis through incessant terrorist bombings) -- was an abject failure. Those calling for continuing American support of this insouisant devil were pissing upwind. They began to realize it.

And not in a nice way. The worst of all possible worlds was nearly upon us.

Democracy Now! gave its whole hour yesterday over to discussion of the mess in Pakistan. It was illuminating to those just getting their bearings on the Crisis Over There, but of course it was on Democracy Now! and only dedicated Socialist Revolutionary Cadres watch that. Much better to spend quality air time ragging on Bill O'Reilly.

But meanwhile, those tectonic plates continue to shift.

By early in the New Year, expect to hear revived calls for an Invasion of Pakistan.

It's in the National Interest. Pervez Must Go.

Really!

"Come on, honey. Who ya gonna believe? Me or yer lyin' eyes?" -- every dude ever caught with his pants down.

The Musharraf regime is busy spinning out an alternative Reality regarding what happened to Benazir Bhutto yesterday. Instead of having been shot twice, once through the neck and then through the shoulder, the Musharraf "investigator" is claiming that she never was hit by bullets or shrapnel. Instead, she was killed when she ducked down into her vehicle and struck her head on the lever that operates the sun and/or moon roof in reaction to the suicide bombing. Stupid woman. She was clumsy, and she died.

This is certainly an interesting version of the Blame the Victim trope that's informed nearly every disaster of the Bushevik years. It's fairly clear that this particular fiction is being generated for Pakistani domestic as well international consumption due to the pubication of various letters and emails Benazir sent before her death, all of which implicate Musharraf in her assassination, not so much directly, but through neglect of her security.

The Musharraf-ites of course are now claiming that they "did all they could" to protect The Woman, but she, being Unwise, was very hard to Protect. The gunman did not touch her. She died reacting to the bombing. And truth be told, there is nothing anyone can do about a determined suicide bomber. Tough breaks. Oh well.

It is critically important for the survival of the Musharraf regime that they convince their own people and the skeptical international community that they did everything they could. The Stupid Woman did her own self in by hitting her head you see.

Cui Bono?!

The obvious answer is not that this helps Republicans, or that it helps Rudy! or that it helps Hillary.

No, the one whose fortunes rise (at least in the immediate context) is Musharraf and surprisingly, possibly his butt-boy Bush.

Musharraf's opposition party has been decapitated, something that is quite clear to those on the Subcontinent. There is now no credible political opposition to the continuation of the Musharraf autocracy in Pakistan. The People may be rising in rage and outrage, but they lack any viable leadership; most likely, the various riots and insurrections will be put down or sputter out. Musharraf will be able to further consolidate his power, more because of the People's exhaustion and frustration than anything else. There is a chance of civil war in Pakistan, but civil unrest does not necessarily lead to the disintegration of the state.

And the Busheviks are watching it all. Unlike the Bourbons, the Busheviks appear to be trying to learn.

And they are learning that assassination, like propaganda, works.

The Bush Regime, with the full complicity of Congress, has delivered something like $10 billion to the Musharraf regime and its military henchmen, no strings attached, in order to buy their acquiescence to the BushWars. Another lesson: bribes work. For a while.

But it has been clear for some time that President General Pervez has his own notions of cooperation, his own ideas of civilian authority in Pakistan, and his own conception of his personal power. Despite his nearly negative approval rating, he has consolidated his personal power, with plenty of technical assistance and pallets of $100 bills from the United States, and there is no sign at all that he intends to relinquish this power or even significantly reduce it during his lifetime.

Benazir Bhutto was a constant, nagging thorn in his side. What to do?

We see for ourselves. It doesn't even take a visit from Negroponte to focus the mind does it?

However, despite Musharraf's apparent 'victory' for the moment, he would be wise to recall the Marcos example before he gets too comfortable in his civilian office.

While all signs right now point to the likely petering out of rebellion against the Musharraf reign of misrule, these flames may not die out at all. And what would a truly democratic Pakistan look like? Are Americans ready for that?

Uppity!

Word came slowly and somewhat haltingly to Casa Ché that Former Pakistani PM Benazir Bhutto has been assassinated at a campaign rally in Rawalpindi.

According to witnesses it was a gunman on a motorcycle who approached Bhutto as she was getting into a car to leave the rally. He fired. Then he detonated a bomb killing himself and a number of others. Bhutto was rushed to the hospital where she died. Per NPR. The coverage on NPR is studiously "balanced", almost as if the story is being supervised by some elements in the White House -- or its bunkers -- focusing on the "inevitability" of her death, the deep-seated ambivalence of the White House toward this Uppity Brown Woman, and the Absolute Necessity of continuing to prop up the Musharraf dictatorship no matter what.

Much is being made of the fact that the elections scheduled for January were not expected to be either free or fair in any case, so in some ways, the absence of Bhutto from the scene simplifies the situation. Musharraf now has a perfectly legitimate excuse for a much more severe crackdown than he has already imposed since declaring (and sort of lifting) a state of emergency, and the establishment of a permanent autocracy under his "civilian" control can now be rationalized.

They trotted Bush out to make remarks, and he called for "bringing to justice" those who committed this crime. Good man. Like the 9/11 hijackers, the perp(s) are already dead. Somehow the notion of just what Suicide Assassins and Bombers do never makes it into the consciousness of the Bush Regime, so we find our nation engaged in endless stupid colonial wars of aggression against peoples who have had nothing to do with the various triggering outrages.

And now we're hearing on NPR that though The People of Pakistan may not like Musharraf, but they most definitely did not want Bhutto and her corruption and neglect of duty back. Furthermore, no one truly believed the scheduled "elections" would be anything more than a "selection."

Don't want to make too much of parallels, but the use and misuse of language in this case (and throughout the latest Pakistani political crises) is highly suggestive.

Here's what ignored Democratic Presidential Candidate Bill Richardson has to say about it all:

DENISON, IA -- New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson issued the following statement this morning after the assassination of Pakistani opposition leader and former prime minister Benazir Bhutto.

"Benazir Bhutto was a courageous woman. Her death, and the deaths of so many of her supporters, is more than just a tragedy. It is a testament to the will of the Pakistani people to see democracy restored. My thoughts and prayers are with the families of those who died today.

"Ms. Bhutto knew the dangers to her safety. But she would not be intimidated. We also must not be intimidated.

A leader has died, but democracy must live. The United States government cannot stand by and allow Pakistan's return to democracy to be derailed or delayed by violence.

We must use our diplomatic leverage and force the enemies of democracy to yield: President Bush should press Musharraf to step aside, and a broad-based coalition government, consisting of all the democratic parties, should be formed immediately. Until this happens, we should suspend military aid to the Pakistani government. Free and fair elections must also be held as soon as possible.

It is in the interests of the US that there be a democratic Pakistan that relentlessly hunts down terrorists. Musharraf has failed, and his attempts to cling to power are destabilizing his country. He must go."

Richardson is a former United States Ambassador to the United Nations.

Quite a different perspective than we are getting from the "News", eh?

UPDATE: "Blame Musharraf" seems to be the jelling conventional wisdom everywhere except in the DC Establishment/Palace/Beltway Media. They, of course, continue to Blame the Victim. (She shoulda knowed better, yadda, yadda). Spencer Ackerman over at TPM Muckraker sums it up:

A longtime adviser and close friend of assassinated Pakistani ex-prime minister Benazir Bhutto places blame for Bhutto's death squarely on the shoulders of U.S.-supported dictator Pervez Musharraf.

After an October attack on Bhutto's life in Karachi, the ex-prime minister warned "certain individuals in the security establishment [about the threat] and nothing was done," says Husain Haqqani, a confidante of Bhutto's for decades. "There is only one possibility: the security establishment and Musharraf are complicit, either by negligence or design. That is the most important thing. She's not the first political leader killed, since Musharraf took power, by the security forces."

Haqqani notes that Bhutto died of a gunshot wound to the neck. "It's like a hit, not a regular suicide bombing," he says. "It's quite clear that someone who considers himself Pakistan's Godfather has a very different attitude toward human life than you and I do."

As for what comes next: Haqqani doubts that Musharraf will go forward with scheduled elections. "The greatest likelihood is that this was aimed not just aimed at Benazir Bhutto but at weakening Pakistan's push for democracy," he says. "But the U.S. has to think long and hard. Musharraf's position is untenable in Pakistan. More and more people are going to blame him for bringing Pakistan to this point, intentionally or unintentionally.

UPDATE 2: Live coverage from India here: http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/videopod/
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Musharraf prohibits live news coverage in Pakistan.