Saturday, February 22, 2014

The New Model Color Revolution

Ukraine's elected president has fled the capital and the government in Kiev, to the extent there is one, is in the hands of a parliament and rebels -- as well as, perhaps, the security services.

The New Model Color Revolution is on the march.

Whether this revolution will be consolidated or not remains to be seen, in part because it was apparently triggered and engineered by American and European economic and political interests in collaboration with a wide range of Ukrainian dissidents -- including neo-Fascist and Nazi groups.

Just yesterday, Polish and German representatives worked out an agreement with Yanukovych to restore the 2004 constitution and to hold new elections by December. In addition, all the armed groups were to turn in their weapons and stand down. A new Interior Minister would be selected. The police would not assault or harass protesters. Apparently, Putin told Yanukovych to agree. So he did.

And I wouldn't be surprised if immediately after this agreement was initialed, the new Interior Minister told Yanukovych that he could not count on the loyalty of the police or the troops, that for all intents and purposes, his rule was at an end.

Momentarily, the parliament voted to impeach Yanukovych, and he fled for the east, perhaps seeking Russian protection, but at this point, it's probably too late for that, as Yanukovych has shown himself to be, shall we say, somewhat inept in dealing with the uprising he's had in his midst for the last several months.

While this uprising has utilized some of the attributes of Gene Sharp's Color Revolutions as well as Occupy, the protests in Kiev have been very violent, with many hundreds injured over the last several months and dozens killed. Police have been routinely assaulted with firebombs and other weapons, and until the other day, they were unarmed and did not respond in kind.

However, it is my understanding that Putin was not happy with the weakness Yanukovych consistently showed in the face of the protests, and told him to man up and crack down. When he did so, it led to even more bloodshed, fires in the square and even more people protesting, which led to the "diplomatic" of the Poles and Germans at the presidential level, which essentially sealed Yanukovych's fate.

There are some indications that a civil war is possible, but with the military and police no longer loyal to Yanukovych, and with the parliament expressing its loyalty to the rebels, the likelihood of civil war is diminished. What happens from this point will depend, in large part, on how magnanimous the rebels are toward the ethnic Russian population.

Under German banking and Eurozone financial control, Ukraine will more than likely be subjected to Greek style austerity -- something Yanukovych was trying to avoid. The Greeks have risen up many times against the crippling, indeed killing, austerity being imposed on them by their German and Eurozone masters, but to no avail. Whether Ukrainians will be as ineffective in resisting the measures they will face as clients of the Germans and Eurozone financiers as the Greeks, Spanish, Portuguese, Italians and so many others have been remains to be seen. But I doubt they will be able to mount a serious defense.

The question of whether Russia will assert some sort of hegemony under the circumstances is still open. I doubt Russia will intervene more than symbolically. More likely in my view, Russia will attempt to strike a deal that enables a quasi independent Ukraine under German and Eurozone financial control, perhaps with a semi-autonomous Russian district.

If anyone in the region is politically skilled, it's Vladimir Putin. And it's clear Putin is disgusted with Yanukovych.

This New Model Color Revolution will no doubt be spreading, sooner rather than later, and there is little sign the results will be positive for the vast majority of humanity.

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